The potential impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on international defense and security

Ano: 2020 | Volume: 26 | Número: 3

Autores: Adriano Lauro, Claudio Rodrigues Corrêa, Thiago Jacobino Honório

Palavras-chave: Covid-19 pandemic, national defense, scenario planning, international security

Resumo Inglês:

The world is struggling with the widely spread effects of the
virus Covid-19. The damage until now took more than a million
people in less than a year, which is more than a considerably
number of small wars together. The purpose of this article is
to identify signs, uncertainties and trends from future studies
that have been written in the last few months by government
agencies, large private companies, academic institutions and
worldwide organizations about the influence of the pandemic
in areas such as economy, international relations, geopolitics,
environment, technology and society in order to assess those of
main potential impacts for national defense and international
security. The methodology relied on semantic analysis
application based on 55 selected futures studies (reports,
papers, books etc.) written in three largely spoken languages
regarding both Covid-19 and prospective scenarios. The
analysis focus on the complex tangle between technology and
society, as well as, between politics and economy. The results
are summarized in a list of variables of trend or uncertainties
followed by some possible impacts on how they can interact
or affect the issue. This paper points out the necessity to look
over this pandemic horizon with contributions from different
government departments, think tanks, academics and non-
governmental organizations to short the time-lapse between
the strategic formulation and its results.