UTILIZAÇÃO DA TÉCNICA DE ANÁLISE DE TENDÊNCIAS IMPACTADAS PARA PROJEÇÃO DO CULTIVO DE EUCALIPTO NO BRASIL

Ano: 2009 | Volume: 1 | Número: 1

Autores: Samir Lotfi, Silvia Pela

Palavras-chave: análise de tendências impactadas,eucalipto,estudos do futuro

Resumo Inglês:

USING THE TECHNIQUE OF ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IMPACTED
PROJECTION FOR THE CULTIVATION OF EUCALYPTUS IN BRAZIL

Eucalyptus forestry constitutes an important source of competitive
advantage for Brazil and, given that it represents a basic raw material for
industrial segments that experience great expansion, following cultivation
area growth rates is hence of increasing relevance. In this study, Impacted
Trend Analysis (ITA) was the technique employed to develop a forecast
concerning the plantation of eucalyptus in Brazil´s reforested areas,
adjusting the linear regression of historical data considering three events in
course or of probable trend influence: forest investment funds, world
financial crisis and the Biomass to Liquid (BTL) technology. It is inferred
that in the short term, eucalyptus cultivation shall expand at close to linear
curve rates, negatively influenced by the world crisis and positively by the
forestry investment funds. For 2016 however, eucalyptus plantation growth
is expected mostly due to the commercial scale of the BTL technology.