MINIMUM-COST NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR WIND POWER IN URUGUAY, WITH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DIURNAL AND SEASONAL CYCLES OF ITS QUALITY
Ciência E Natura
MINIMUM-COST NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR WIND POWER IN URUGUAY, WITH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DIURNAL AND SEASONAL CYCLES OF ITS QUALITY
Autor Correspondente: Gabriel Cazes Boezio | [email protected]
Palavras-chave: numerical prediction; daily cycle; annual cycle
Resumos Cadastrados
Resumo Inglês:
This paper presents the results of a minimum cost prediction system for the electric power generated by the operational wind farms in Uruguay. By keeping both the computational costs and the complexity of the empirical corrections of the numerical results at a minimum, we obtain a reference for the ability to predict more complex forecasting systems, which is easily available during the calibration and operational stages. The paper also aims to explore the diurnal and seasonal cycle of forecasting quality. It turns out that this simple prediction system produces very good results, although the dependencies of the skill and prediction errors in relation to the season and the time of day are distinguishable. It is also verified that it is necessary to take into account the diurnal and seasonal cycles during the calibration of the empirical corrections. The good results of this simple technique could have been possible due to the relatively smooth topography of Uruguay.
