Objetivo: analisar a tendência temporal da cobertura vacinal contra o papilomavírus humano em meninas de 9 a 14 anos no estado do Rio de Janeiro, entre 2015 e 2023. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal com dados do Departamento de Informática do SUS e do Sistema de Informações do Programa Nacional de Imunizações. Foram consideradas as segundas doses aplicadas. A taxa de cobertura foi calculada anualmente, e a tendência analisada pelo modelo de Prais-Winsten. O teste de Durbin-Watson avaliou a autocorrelação. A análise estatística foi realizada no Excel e SPSS, com significância de p<0,05. Resultados: No período, foram aplicadas 686.804 segundas doses da vacina quadrivalente, resultando em cobertura média de 16,5% e geral de 41%. A variação percentual anual foi de -1,8% (IC95%: -2,1 a 0,6; p = 0,02). O coeficiente de Durbin-Watson foi 2,04, indicando tendência estacionária. Conclusão: A cobertura vacinal contra o HPV em meninas de 9 a 14 anos no Rio de Janeiro permaneceu baixa e estável entre 2015 e 2023, evidenciando a necessidade de intensificar estratégias de imunização.
Objective: to analyze the temporal trend of vaccination coverage against human papillomavirus among girls aged 9 to 14 years in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2015 and 2023. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study based on data obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Unified Health System and the Information System of the National Immunization Program. The number of second doses administered was considered. Vaccination coverage rates were calculated annually, and the trend was analyzed using the Prais-Winsten regression model. The Durbin-Watson test was applied to assess serial autocorrelation. Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel and the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences,
with a significance level of p < 0.05. Results: A total of 686,804 second doses of the quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus were administered to girls aged 9 to 14 years during the study period. The overall coverage rate was approximately 41%, with an average of 16.5%. The annual percentage variation was -1.8% (95% confidence interval: -2.1 to 0.6; p-value = 0.02). The Durbin-Watson coefficient was 2.04, indicating a stationary temporal trend. Conclusion: Vaccination coverage against human papillomavirus among girls aged 9 to 14 years in the state of Rio de Janeiro remained low and stationary between 2015 and 2023, highlighting the need to strengthen immunization strategies to increase adherence and improve cervical cancer prevention.
